All too familiar with Manchester United. Or is it too early to judge?
Manchester United vs Fulham in recent years have always been tight affairs. If you read last week’s article, you’ll know that I went against the consensus that United played well vs Arsenal. There were slight good signs but I attributed it to the new signings and the return of Shaw and Mount.
Last game vs Arsenal, United was applauded for the 61% possession and 22 shots. The issue no one looks beyond face value. I mentioned in the previous game that United have gotten good at the “look good” game. It had become a bit of a habit at United, since the Erik ten Hag time, that attackers and midfielders took low quality shots.
If you analyze the shots taken in the Arsenal game, you’ll realize 63% of United’s shots were very low quality shots. On average if a team passes 20+ shots, they usually accumulate 2.2xG or more. United barely accumulated 1.5xG. This alone should tell you that United flattered to deceive. This 1.5xG included two great chances from Cunha and a screaming header from Mbeumo — only good chances in my opinion.
Two things played a role in the possession statistic: United’s setup and opposition intent. One; United’s setup, generally, enables them to have too many players behind at the ball where they will remain fairly unchallenged thus circulation and maintaining possession is easy. Two, the opposition intent (Arsenal) was to let United have the ball (more so the second half) since they are not that dangerous with it. If you combine these two then United achieving their highest possession statistic vs Arsenal since the 8–2 win makes sense.
We are all familiar with the basic ideas United have in their setup under Amorim like pushing the CCB to midfield, bypassing the midfield through long balls etc. So do Fulham. They were well prepared for United.
Now in today’s match vs Fulham, United started off well and with aggression. Their entire was press committed and they took the risk to leave the Fulham attacking players in 1v1 situations with their CBs.
In the first 10minutes, United were *good* because the WBs were not pinned by the Fulham wide players. Thus, not allowing an overload to happen in midfield. Look at the first image where Dorgu and both the CMs were committed then look at the second and third photo where there were either no midfielder committed or no WB, this caused a massive gap in midfield.
Fulham quickly realized that they needed to pin the WBs constantly then through the overload in the first line Fulham’s GK and the CBs (1+2) and 2 FBs and CM (2+1) vs United’s ST and two 10s (1+2).
All they needed to do after is manipulate United’s first two lines through simple movement behind United’s midfield then drive. It kept happening over and over with no answer from United.
Shaw clocked that one of fulham’s attackers dropped to receive in the empty space behind the midfield. Unfortunately, his timing was off which made him easy to be played around then that created a gap between Dorgu and MDL. Notice how the WBs are pinned in the last picture (3rd right) by the Fulham widest players.
After the match, the consensus were United were amazing in the first 10–15 minutes but then faded. I have watched those first 15 minutes about 4–5 times and, in my opinion, it was okay at best. We created 2 chances then no shots until the penalty then no shots until the 49th minute.
United were not creating chance after chance in the first 15minutes. Whenever United had settled possession and Fulham were in their OOP shape, United were running out of ideas on how to create. United were almost in 3–1–6 shape in the image above and no one dropped to connect with Yoro and Amad (the WB) was too far away. Yoro had two options; he either goes back or tries an over the top pass. And that is exactly what happened, Yoro tried an over the top pass to Amad but it went nowhere.
In terms of chances in the first 10mins, United just had a good sequence from winning a second ball that led to Cunha hitting the post and the GK to Cunha chance which came out of nowhere and needed an exceptional control from Cunha. The other 2 shots from outside the box were barely half chances — if we are being honest with ourselves they are once in a season chance of being converted — and if United fans are happy with those then United’s standards are truly on the floor.
Fulham in the 4–4–2 out-of-possession seemed unfazed. The CMs are cancelled out, as what the 4–4–2 usually tries to accomplish. They blocked all the passing lanes to the 10s and Cunha.
Manchester United, this season (only 2 games Ik), seem to have been trying to bait teams more into pressing so they can stretch the lines between the first 2 lines and the defence, this, in turn, creates space for the 10s. However, Fulham didn’t take the bait and this caused Mount to drop this deep, and on the odd times Fulham took the bait, they forced United very long. They were prepared to win the headers vs Mbeumo and Cunha and to not let them hold the ball so United can move up.
In the second half, it was more of the same. United’s midfield got gassed out even further and further, so it got worse and worse for United. If there was a team that looked like scoring then that would have been Fulham.
There are two intertwined issues I see with United’s current setup. The amount of ground the WBs and the CMs need to cover and the lack of compactness out of possession in the 5–2–3. The last one is biggest issue, I believe.
The only times United resembled anything like compactness came when the entire shape collapsed on itself. This usually happens when the opposition team controls larger territory in the opposition half and force the defending team closer to their box.
The 5–2–3 that Amorim employs costs United every game. It cedes unnecessary territory both in wide areas and through the middle. Opponents can easily pull the CMs out of position. Most critically, the system demands a proactive backline capable of consistently making well-timed step ups into midfield. This is something that is unsustainable at best.
And if your backline doesn’t step out consistently, you’ll lose your compactness often. I cannot emphasize how important compactness is. It is one of the most fundamental principles in football. Ignoring it at any point — regardless of a team’s playing style — is a serious red flag. No top-tier coach worth his/her salt has ever neglected compactness. It is what caused so many mangers to lose their jobs. If you revisit the last few games for a manager before his/her sacking, you’ll notice that the teams’ biggest issue was lack compactness and emphasis on zonal structures out-of-possession.
We are still 2 games in and I don’t want to jump into any quick conclusion. Amorim can fix some of the big issues United have with a few small tweaks but…will he?
Only time will tell.
Thank you.
Abdel Rahman
